Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Election Prediction

Super Tuesday was yesterday – actually the day I am writing this blog entry. Super Tuesday, however, seems a lot less super since many of the states that normally participate in Super Tuesday moved up their primaries.

The primary doesn't matter though. It matters not. Sorry Ohio. Sorry Texas. It really doesn't matter who you vote for. Your vote doesn't count. Americans don't want to hear that. Americans want their votes to count. We hear it in high school, so it must be true, damnit1.

Now, some years your vote counts more than other years – and it has to do with who is running. Not who is running on the Democratic or Republican ticket, but which spoiler is running. And the current spoiler's name is Ralph Nader.

While most liberal Americans blame hanging chads for one of W. Bush's victories, others blame Ralph Nader. Personally, I blame Al Gore, who blew off Nader after he became vice president. Nader wanted a meeting with Al Gore, but Gore was a little too busy, and it may have cost him the presidency. At the very least, it made Ralph Nader an enemy.

Now some believe that Nader did not cost Al Gore the election – some a lot more astute than I, that is. But I am a fear-monger, so hear me out. />2

Now I know what many of you are thinking: Ralph Nader's pinnicle of success was obtained in 1988 when he was singing "People in Your Neighborhood" with Bob McGrath Sesame Street episode. For me, he was a consumer advocate. And now, he also has aligned himself with environmental issues as well.

Who does someone who works on environment and consumer advocate non-profits want to rule the country? A Democrat who may work on solving these issues? Or a Republican who may not (and donations to said non-profits almost certainly increase given this fact)? Now, I am a believer in following the money. I get that from my fear-mongering media kit. Personally, I don't think there is much different from Dems and Reps as far as the environment is concerned. How many legislative efforts did we hear from Clinton with Gore as his right-hand VP man? I can't think of any. At least when Republicans (under the Reagan administration) threatened Alaska wildlife for pipelines, conservation was in the forefront of people's minds. Oh, and non-profits did more to purchase land to set aside for the future. They had more money to do things since environmentalists were rallying around these threats.3

Now, I am not saying Nader mattered on all of the elections he was in, but people who vote for Nader are more likely to vote for a Democratic than a Republican candidate.

Also, I have heard that if Obama is the nominee, perhaps Nader doesn't have much of a role, either, because he is getting non-voters to vote. He is not just cutting a piece of the voting pie; he is baking as well.

So maybe your vote is not lost. If that makes your head explode, Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and some other little state, well, it may made a difference if you vote for Obama or against H. Clinton.

I am a woman and really want to see a woman president. But the right president.

My prediction is this: if Obama wins the Democrat nomination, it is even money between Obama and McCain. If H. Clinton wins, whoever the Republican nominates will be the next president. Personally, I think it is funny that most Republicans don't like McCain. Maybe that is a good endorsement for the man; I don't know.

But whatever happens, this election year is entertaining. Now what else do you hope for? Candidates that shoot straight? P-please. This is America and we don't vote for people who talk honestly to us.

1Is "damnit" a minor swear word? I hope so.

2Translation: this is total BS, a funny piece with kernels of truth interwoven.

3Yeah, I am an environmentalist who does not believe there is much difference between Republicans and Democrats on environmental issues. I am not talking rhetoric. I am talking action.


Stacy The Peanut Queen said...

Eh, they're ALL a bunch of liars. They tell you what they know you want to hear until they get in office.

And I agree completely with your're dead on!

Anonymous said...

Where do I fit, I don't like any of them.

My frined K emailed yesterday with the web site of Obama's church. It was frightening when they spoke of "the black value system" and things like that.

Do you realize if HC wins a "family" will have controlled the country for 24 years.

McCain, who's he?

I hate the bi-lateral two party system. They used to say anyone who was "bi" was confused and couldn't make up their mind.

See where that gets us in politics?


グラント said...

Last time I voted for Dave Barry, who promises that he agrees with all of us on all the issues. I believe him, although I may vote on a more mainstream candidate this time. I have some complaints on each of the three front-runners, but this time I don't feel like it's a choice between the lesser of two evils like the last two elections.

Leesa said...

stacey: I hope I am not dead on.

edge: I was supporting Rudy. Yeah, hard to imagine a southerner wanting a New Yorker to win. T'aint natural.

grant: perhaps it is the greater of three evils. Maybe. I would like the Italian political system, where a porn star can serve (and flash) for years.

kathi said...

Yeah, this time is harder than most because it's the best of the worst for me...and then it's a toss up.

Leesa said...

kathi: yeah, I guess you had to use your quarter yesterday to decide who to vote for. You are from TX, right?

Angel... said...

Leesa, Yes its true you right as usual, actually, but in general, the majority of party beliefs are similar to the voters individual beliefs. Not just "hey...I'm a woman, she's a woman...she gets my vote"!

I think we should vote for the candidate who represents best the issues that are important to us. If it happens to be Hillary and like I am a woman, good for me. If it happens to be Barack and who is black, good for them.. isn't it true?

see you

Angel... said...


I tried to open your blog...unfortunately i still can't

Nice to see u here

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kathi said...

Yup, TX...but it was a toss up between a lot of things yesterday...crazy.

seattledrizzle said...

Here is my prediction: if Hillary beats Obama, Hillary will be president. If Hillary loses, McCain will be president. Either way, my sister will vote for Nader. ;)

Leesa said...

angel: yeah, I think we want to vote for people more like ourselves. But politicians are priveleged, and most of us are not.

jason: nice spam (several times)

kathi: it seemed like a party in TX.

seattle: too many people hate Hillary for her to be president.

Prata said...

I find Hillary...a little manic depressive. I liked Bill Clinton...sort of...but I dislike his wife (not on a personal level I'm sure they are both fine individuals). I mean politically. I like Obama's education ideas and his health care plan, which isn't that different from Hillary's but modified to work in a more "fair" way as far as my being a semi-minority and working in the health care field.

Leesa said...

prata: Hillary reminds me of . . . Martha Stewart. I guess TravelGate and Whitewater are things I still remember.