Election Prediction

Super Tuesday was yesterday – actually the day I am writing this blog entry. Super Tuesday, however, seems a lot less super since many of the states that normally participate in Super Tuesday moved up their primaries.

The primary doesn't matter though. It matters not. Sorry Ohio. Sorry Texas. It really doesn't matter who you vote for. Your vote doesn't count. Americans don't want to hear that. Americans want their votes to count. We hear it in high school, so it must be true, damnit¹.

Now, some years your vote counts more than other years – and it has to do with who is running. Not who is running on the Democratic or Republican ticket, but which spoiler is running. And the current spoiler's name is Ralph Nader.

While most liberal Americans blame hanging chads for one of W. Bush's victories, others blame Ralph Nader. Personally, I blame Al Gore, who blew off Nader after he became vice president. Nader wanted a meeting with Al Gore, but Gore was a little too busy, and it may have cost him the presidency. At the very least, it made Ralph Nader an enemy.

Now some believe that Nader did not cost Al Gore the election – some a lot more astute than I, that is. But I am a fear-monger, so hear me out. />²

Now I know what many of you are thinking: Ralph Nader's pinnicle of success was obtained in 1988 when he was singing "People in Your Neighborhood" with Bob McGrath Sesame Street episode. For me, he was a consumer advocate. And now, he also has aligned himself with environmental issues as well.

Who does someone who works on environment and consumer advocate non-profits want to rule the country? A Democrat who may work on solving these issues? Or a Republican who may not (and donations to said non-profits almost certainly increase given this fact)? Now, I am a believer in following the money. I get that from my fear-mongering media kit. Personally, I don't think there is much different from Dems and Reps as far as the environment is concerned. How many legislative efforts did we hear from Clinton with Gore as his right-hand VP man? I can't think of any. At least when Republicans (under the Reagan administration) threatened Alaska wildlife for pipelines, conservation was in the forefront of people's minds. Oh, and non-profits did more to purchase land to set aside for the future. They had more money to do things since environmentalists were rallying around these threats.³

Now, I am not saying Nader mattered on all of the elections he was in, but people who vote for Nader are more likely to vote for a Democratic than a Republican candidate.

Also, I have heard that if Obama is the nominee, perhaps Nader doesn't have much of a role, either, because he is getting non-voters to vote. He is not just cutting a piece of the voting pie; he is baking as well.

So maybe your vote is not lost. If that makes your head explode, Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and some other little state, well, it may made a difference if you vote for Obama or against H. Clinton.

I am a woman and really want to see a woman president. But the right president.

My prediction is this: if Obama wins the Democrat nomination, it is even money between Obama and McCain. If H. Clinton wins, whoever the Republican nominates will be the next president. Personally, I think it is funny that most Republicans don't like McCain. Maybe that is a good endorsement for the man; I don't know.

But whatever happens, this election year is entertaining. Now what else do you hope for? Candidates that shoot straight? P-please. This is America and we don't vote for people who talk honestly to us.

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¹Is "damnit" a minor swear word? I hope so.

²Translation: this is total BS, a funny piece with kernels of truth interwoven.

³Yeah, I am an environmentalist who does not believe there is much difference between Republicans and Democrats on environmental issues. I am not talking rhetoric. I am talking action.